Ends a period of sustained declines that began in July 2016
WASHINGTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Today, the JPMorgan Chase Institute released its Local
Consumer Commerce Index (LCCI) for December 2016, which showed that
14 of the 15 US cities analyzed had higher year-over-year consumer
spending growth rates in December than they did in November. Overall
year-over-year consumer spending growth increased by 1.5 percent in
December – ending a period of sustained declines that began in July
2016. Non-durable spending rebounded significantly relative to November,
contributing 1.2 percentage points to overall growth.
Data visualization of the changes in local consumer spending growth over
the last 24 months can be found online.
For the first time since February 2016, the drag on growth from
consumers in the top income quintile (-1.1 percentage points) was offset
by growth contributions of consumers in the bottom income quintile (1.1
percentage points). Meanwhile, consumers between the ages of 35 and 54
jointly made their first positive growth contribution since April 2016.
This report provides a timely view of how the following cities and
surrounding metro areas are faring economically, both individually and
in aggregate: Atlanta, Chicago, Columbus, Dallas, Denver, Detroit,
Houston, Miami, Los Angeles, New York, Phoenix, Portland (OR), San
Diego, San Francisco, and Seattle. By looking at actual, de-identified
financial transactions, LCCI offers an ongoing, dynamic view of the
health and vibrancy of the U.S. consumer and the places where businesses
“December 2016 brought some encouraging trends including the shift from
a period of sustained declines to this increase in consumer spending
growth,” said Diana Farrell, President and CEO of the JPMorgan Chase
Institute. “This increase in growth was widespread with 14 of the 15
cities we analyze showing higher year-over-year growth rates than they
did in November.”
The key highlights from the latest Index include:
Consumers under 35 made a contribution of 1.9 percentage points in
Consumers in the bottom income quintile closed out 2016 by continuing
their trend of strong contributions to growth, contributing 1.1
percentage points to growth in December 2016.
Contributions from small businesses cooled slightly, falling from a
0.9 percentage point contribution in November 2016 to 0.1 percentage
point contribution in December 2016. By contrast, large businesses
contributed 1.5 percentage points to growth in December 2016, up from
flat growth in November and the largest contribution of any business
size in that month.
Houston was the only large LCCI city in December 2016 to not register
a positive growth rate. Regardless, the 2 percent contraction is the
smallest contraction for Houston since March 2016.
The LCCI offers unique advantages over existing measures of consumer
The LCCI captures actual transactions, instead of self-reported
measures of how consumers think they spend.
The LCCI provides timely data on spending in 15 major metropolitan
areas; such geographic granularity is unavailable in most other
spending measures. These 15 cities mirror the geographic and economic
diversity of larger metropolitan areas in the United States and
account for 32 percent of retail sales nationwide.
The index also presents a more granular view of local consumer
commerce through five important lenses: consumer age, consumer income,
business size, product type, and consumer residence relative to the
location of the business. For each lens, we show how different
segments contributed to year-over-year spending growth.
The LCCI captures economic activity in sectors that previously have
not been well understood by other data sources. These include sectors
such as food trucks, new merchants, and personal services.
Each release of the LCCI describes the economic picture of local
communities and provides a powerful
tool for city development officials, businesses, investors, and
statistical agencies to better understand the everyday economic health
of consumers, businesses, and the places they care about.
About the JPMorgan Chase Institute
The JPMorgan Chase Institute is a global think tank dedicated to
delivering data-rich analyses and expert insights for the public good.
Its aim is to help decision makers – policymakers, businesses, and
nonprofit leaders – appreciate the scale, granularity, diversity, and
interconnectedness of the global economic system and use better facts,
timely data, and thoughtful analysis to make smarter decisions to
advance global prosperity. Drawing on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s unique
proprietary data, expertise, and market access, the Institute develops
analyses and insights on the inner workings of the global economy,
frames critical problems, and convenes stakeholders and leading
thinkers. For more information visit: jpmorganchaseinstitute.com.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Nicole Kennedy, 215-864-5732