Miércoles 13 de Diciembre 2017

Auto Sales Expected to Decline in April for 4th Straight Month

Guía de Regalos

SANTA MONICA, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–ALG,
the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a
vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries,
will reach 1,440,200 units in April, down 3.9 percent from a year ago
and nearly flat on a selling day adjusted basis at -0.2 percent.

This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light
vehicle sales is an estimated 17.1 million units for the month, down 1.9
percent from a 17.4 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales,
U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are expected to
decline 4.8 percent with 1,190,657 units and down on a selling
day adjusted basis at -1.2 percent.

“Despite higher incentives and nearly flat sales (on a daily sales rate
basis), there is positivity in the April sales numbers,” said Eric
Lyman, chief industry analyst for ALG. “Historical ALG data indicate
Easter weekend sales are typically 2 percent lower than average, putting
April 2017 at a disadvantage since the holiday fell in March last year.
Also, fleet deliveries continue to drop on a year over year basis,
indicating that retail demand is still driving sales in 2017.”

Incentive spending by automakers may average an estimated $3,465 per
vehicle in April, up 13.9 percent from a year ago, and down 2.5 percent
from March 2017.

The
University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment
is at 98.0 this
month up from 96.9 in March, which indicates continued confidence in the
health of the U.S. economy. Other key factors for positive economic
conditions include the March unemployment
rate
, which came in at 4.5 percent, combined with a favorable
average gas price of $2.40
recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for April:

  • Registration mix is expected to be 82.7 percent retail sales and 17.3
    percent fleet versus 83.5 percent retail and 16.5 percent fleet last
    April.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships
    and private-party transactions, may reach 3,318,537, down 0.8 percent
    from April 2016.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

     

April 2017

Forecast

     

April 2016

     

% Change vs.

April 2016

     

YoY % Change

(Daily Selling

Rate)

BMW       29,500       29,826       -1.1 %       2.7 %
Daimler       32,500       32,291       0.6 %       4.5 %
FCA       176,000       192,685       -8.7 %       -5.1 %
Ford       212,000       229,739       -7.7 %       -4.2 %
GM       260,000       259,557       0.2 %       4.0 %
Honda       145,000       148,829       -2.6 %       1.2 %
Hyundai       62,000       62,213       -0.3 %       3.5 %
Kia       49,000       56,508       -13.3 %       -10.0 %
Nissan       122,000       123,861       -1.5 %       2.3 %
Subaru       52,500       50,380       4.2 %       8.2 %
Toyota       197,000       211,125       -6.7 %       -3.1 %
Volkswagen Group       49,500       50,522       -2.0 %       1.7 %

Industry

     

1,440,200

     

1,498,965

     

-3.9

%

     

-0.2

%

                       
 

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

     

April 2017

Forecast

      April 2016       March 2017
BMW       2.0 %       2.0 %       2.3 %
Daimler       2.3 %       2.2 %       2.1 %
FCA       12.2 %       12.9 %       12.3 %
Ford       14.7 %       15.3 %       15.1 %
GM       18.1 %       17.3 %       16.5 %
Honda       10.1 %       9.9 %       8.8 %
Hyundai       4.3 %       4.2 %       4.3 %
Kia       3.4 %       3.8 %       3.2 %
Nissan       8.5 %       8.3 %       10.9 %
Subaru       3.6 %       3.4 %       3.5 %
Toyota       13.7 %       14.1 %       13.8 %
Volkswagen Group       3.4 %       3.4 %       3.3 %
                 
 

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

     

April 2017

Forecast

     

April 2016

     

YoY %

Change

     

YoY %

Change

(Daily Selling

Rate)

BMW       28,560       29,059       -1.7 %       2.1 %
Daimler       30,392       30,138       0.8 %       4.7 %
FCA       146,000       153,150       -4.7 %       -1.0 %
Ford       142,000       167,744       -15.3 %       -12.1 %
GM       200,000       204,178       -2.0 %       1.7 %
Honda       143,609       146,237       -1.8 %       2.0 %
Hyundai       50,607       52,997       -4.5 %       -0.8 %
Kia       40,205       46,894       -14.3 %       -11.0 %
Nissan       91,499       94,389       -3.1 %       0.7 %
Subaru       49,245       47,666       3.3 %       7.3 %
Toyota       174,203       184,208       -5.4 %       -1.8 %
Volkswagen Group       46,648       47,608       -2.0 %       1.8 %

Industry

     

1,190,657

     

1,251,071

     

-4.8

%

     

-1.2

%

                       
 

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer      

Incentive

per Unit

Apr 2017

Forecast

     

Incentive

per Unit

Apr 2016

     

Incentive

per Unit

Mar 2017

     

Incentive

per Unit

% Change vs.

Apr 2016

     

Incentive

per Unit

% Change vs.

Mar 2017

     

Total

Spending

Apr 2017

Forecast

BMW       $ 4,451       $ 5,290       $ 4,227       -15.9 %       5.3 %       $ 130,850,555
Daimler       $ 4,670       $ 4,000       $ 4,767       16.8 %       -2.0 %       $ 151,787,792
FCA       $ 4,482       $ 3,982       $ 4,583       12.6 %       -2.2 %       $ 779,906,193
Ford       $ 3,775       $ 3,514       $ 3,809       7.4 %       -0.9 %       $ 800,201,090
GM       $ 4,717       $ 4,012       $ 4,850       17.6 %       -2.7 %       $ 1,226,424,730
Honda       $ 1,863       $ 1,604       $ 1,853       16.2 %       0.6 %       $ 270,175,905
Hyundai       $ 2,580       $ 2,008       $ 2,591       28.5 %       -0.4 %       $ 159,933,159
Kia       $ 2,978       $ 2,722       $ 3,004       9.4 %       -0.9 %       $ 145,923,492
Nissan       $ 3,895       $ 3,232       $ 4,036       20.5 %       -3.5 %       $ 475,183,155
Subaru       $ 864       $ 595       $ 907       45.2 %       -4.8 %       $ 45,349,377
Toyota       $ 2,311       $ 1,996       $ 2,430       15.8 %       -4.9 %       $ 455,310,295
Volkswagen Group       $ 3,922       $ 3,443       $ 3,995       13.9 %       -1.8 %       $ 193,330,272

Industry

     

$

3,465

     

$

3,041

     

$

3,556

     

13.9

%

     

-2.5

%

     

$

4,968,169,020

                                   

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of
industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the
company’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an
industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the
United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each
year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial
services clients with market industry insights, residual value
forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk
services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital
automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency
about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50
years and in Canada since 1981.

Contacts

TrueCar, Inc.
Veronica Cardenas, 424-258-2487
VCardenas@truecar.com
pressinquiries@truecar.com